试读版 | 美国强势超过以往,巴拿马背叛显示后院失火

什么样的华人最容易被查?更多人会反水,马杜罗强撑有战争之忧

内容梗概

  • 川普团队比尼克松基辛格更明显、更强有力的介入南美国家事务,上个世纪六七十年代,在智利或者牙买加,CIA的角色是努力想隐藏的。

    Trump team’s involvement in South American affairs is more salient and forceful than Nixon and Kissinger. The CIA’s role in Chile and Jamaica during the 1960s and 1970s was secretive.

  • 现在,川普没有这个耐心。承认一个没有实质控制国家的反对派领爪伊多总统地位,在外交上是罕见的,但迅速催化了委内瑞拉政局的变化。

    Now Trump doesn’t have the same kind of patience. The decision to recognize the opposition leader Guaido as interim president while Maduro remains in de facto control is unusual. But it rapid catalyzed the shift in the political standoff in Venezuela.

  • 经济手段、心理喊话、军事动向,势必使越来越多有影响力的人站出来,将马杜罗逼到了死角。

    The US took a three-pronged approach, combining economic incentives, psychological operations and military options. As support is gradually built against Maduro, the disputed Venezuelan president has backed himself into a corner.

  • 他天天与军队在一起显示他不惜一战,但那些新来的军人好像是尚未完成训练的民兵。

    Maduro frequently flaunts the strength and loyalty of the national guard. On Saturday, he announced that an additional 30K members of the “civilian militia” would be incorporated into the national guard. But many of the new recruits appeared untrained and out of their depth.

  • 人们在僵局中期待一个突发的事件,但很多不利马杜罗的传闻是轻易可以查证的谣言,谣言的力量还没有显现。

    People are expecting a sudden turn of events to break the deadlock, but it takes little more than simple fact-checking to debunk many widespread rumors about Maduro's imminent downfall. Rumors can be powerful prophecies. The real consequences of fake information are yet to be seen.

  • 美国的后院上个世纪以来一直是体育场,美俄的竞赛至今还没有散场。而中国的诱惑力使美国的几个伙伴,去年抛弃台湾投向北京时,美国的外交官在几十个小时前才被告知,尤其巴拿马。

    The so-called “American backyard” has long been the political arena between US and Russia. But Beijing has also stepped up efforts to woo American allies in Latin America. Last year, three countries (Panama, Dominican Republic and El Salvador) cut formal ties with Taiwan and switched recognition to Beijing, triggering strong warnings from Washington, whose envoys were informed on short notice and were caught off guard. The case of Panama was especially concerning.

  • 美国会在南美开辟与中共的争夺战吗,现在还只是代理人出场。不过,爪伊多已向习近平承诺,会接过马杜罗欠下的巨债。中国人更在乎200亿美元是否打了水漂,北京对马杜罗的支持力度明显不如莫斯科。

    Washington has long watched China’s increasing influence in Latin America with growing concern. The current situation in Venezuela has stirred fears over the potential for the region becoming a new battlefield with the two countries wrangling for supremacy. Venezuela's self-proclaimed president Juan Guaido has promised China that he will honor bilateral agreements to repay the country’s US$20 billion debt. Beijing is mostly concerned about its financial exposure to Venezuela’s descent into political crisis, which explains its halfhearted support for Maduro.

  • 另一方面,孟晚舟事件、中美关系恶化、黄向墨被澳洲取消绿卡,使一些华人失去安全感,担心自己会不会成为牺牲品。 华人移民维系与中国的关系现在成了困惑,使他们在扮演“桥梁”角色同时被两国提防,杨恒钧与黄向墨是两个相反的例子,但本质是一样的,最终有一方要收拾他。

    The Chinese billionaire Huang Xiangmo 黄向墨 saw his Australian residency revoked. This incident, together with the Huawei-Meng Wanzhou case and the deterioration of US-China relations, alarms many people among the Chinese diaspora. The relationship between Chinese immigrants and their home country is now a source of confusion for many. While playing the role of “cultural liaison” between China and the world, Chinese immigrants are also treated with caution by both sides. The case of Yang Hengjun 杨恒均 and that of Huang Xiangmo 黄向墨 are two sides of the same coin.

  • 中国人相信关系是保护伞,尤其希望得到政治权贵的疪护。然而,从已经发生的案例看,那些被查的华人,往往是与所在国官员、议员、政客有关系的人,因为这些人无论是在北美澳洲,还是欧洲,都是被媒体、司法机构盯得最紧的人,也是国家安全最需要保护的防线。 黄向墨便是一例,美国查的很多华人案亦是。所以,墙上的与政客合影可以满足你的荣耀感,但不会使你拥有免责的特权。

    The Chinese believe in the magic of Guanxi as safe shield, especially when it’s nurtured with a high-powered politician. However, applying the same logic and courting politicians (e.g., making donations in explicit or implicit exchange for the politician’s official favor) outside China can be dangerous: there are many known cases where Chinese nationals are arrested and prosecuted over national security concerns by US, European and Australian authorities. Putting up a photo with a politician smilingly shaking hand with you might satisfy your vanity, but having that connection won’t exonerate you from the legal consequences of interfering in domestic politics.


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