试读版 | 川普不想答应去海南见习近平;亚洲何国可让美国导弹对准中国?



  • 川普总统的国情咨文展现了美国的力量,价值与利益。中国政府工作报告没有办法与之相比,好像不是同一星球发生的事。

    President Trump’s State of the Union address hails the strength, value and interests of the United States. The Chinese counterpart of the SOTU address, the Premier’s annual work report (政府工作报告,literally “Report on the Work of the Government”)pales in comparison.

  • 美国的价值不只是自由、法治、民主,而且是对不同意见的包容,永不休止的创新情神。

    The value of the United States extends beyond its strong rule-of-law tradition, its vibrant democratic system, and its extensive freedoms of expression, religious belief, and a wide range of other civil liberties. Above all, the United States is known for its tolerance and celebration of diversity and its everlasting innovative spirit.

  • 美国政治当然有暗角,但争论更多也是公开、和平的方式,并有司法保护、防守。

    American politics certainly has its dark side, but political debates are usually conducted in an open, nonviolent manner. Moreover, the legal and judicial system serves as the ultimate means of resolving disputes.

  • 国情咨文不断赢得在场国会议员的掌声,是议员对自己的激励,总统代表他们发声。

    The State of the Union address was frequently interrupted by applause from the audience. The applause is political in tone, as members stand and clap in response to the Trump’s remarks with which they agree. In that sense, the audience is also cheering themselves on.

  • 那位小姑娘从小将零花钱捐献出来,结果是那家受捐的医院治好了她的脑瘤。如此好报,令我难忍热泪。当然,更伟大的慈善之心,未必求报。

    I was moved to tears by the story of Grace Eline, who had decided to exchange her birthday gifts for charity donations since an early age. She survived a germ-cell brain tumor. It seems that when you do good deeds, it does come back to you in some way. Yet to me the greatest of all kindness arises from altruism: We genuinely want to help others, never entertaining the thought that they will return the favor some day.

  • 目的是迎合国民的国情咨文即使出自才子之手,也反映了川普的个性与不同于民主党的政见。

    The purpose of the State of the Union address is to cater to the concerns of the American people. Even if the speech is crafted by a seasoned hand, it still reflects Trump's personality quirks. He bluntly expressed his disagreements with the Democrats.

  • 但说美国不会社会主义,令一些人振奋,却意识形态化了政见分歧。

    Trump’s declaration that “America will never be a socialist country” energizes many in the audience. But the statement also risks putting the ideological branding iron on policy debates.

  • 美国社会福利制度有其漏洞,应该作制度修正。美国是西方工业国家中唯一没有全民健保者,而健保恰恰被利益集团绑架。

    The US social insurance and healthcare system suffer from many loopholes which need to be closed. For example, the screening process for eligibility for some welfare programs could potentially be gamed. Yet the US is one of the few exceptions among Western industrialized nations who do not provide universal healthcare. Efforts to reform the healthcare system are bogged down by large interests group.

  • 伊朗是否违反了核协议?欧洲,包括川普的情报团队似乎与川普有不同认知,川普坦诚地与以色列挂上了勾。

    Did Iran violate the agreements of the nuclear deal? Trump thought so, although his intelligence team suggested otherwise. He abandoned the pact and reimposed sanctions on Iran. The EU took aim at Washington by reiterating its commitment to saving the nuclear deal with Iran, according to a recent report issued by the nation bloc. Trump admitted that Israel played a role in his decision.

  • 委内瑞拉总统马杜罗选举的合法性遭到很多国家质疑,去年只获得110个左右国家认可。瓜伊多领导民众反抗,要求重选是正当之义。 美国匆匆承认瓜伊多总统之权,如同上世纪介入古巴、智利、牙买加政治一样,是美国的后院战略,只是川普更直接、更用力。

    The legitimacy of the Maduro presidency has been questioned by many countries. The outcome of the election was only recognized by about 110 countries last year. In his quest for justice, Guaido led his people to the streets to demand a re-election. The United States hurriedly acknowledged Guaido as the country’s interim president, a move that closely resembles the “backyard strategy” deployed by the US in Cuba, Chile, and Jamaica in the last century. But compared with his predecessors, Trump has a more direct and forceful approach.

  • 川普退出与俄罗斯的《中程导弹协议》,是寻求更有效、可执行的限制性条约,而且应该包括中国和更多国家,这当然是一个更错综复杂的谈判。在此之前,美国要在亚洲寻找到愿意布署针对中国的中程导弹的国家,是极为困难的,包括美国的盟友日本、韩国、菲律宾。除非是战争状态,否则这些国家接受的更可能是反导弹系统。

    Trump's withdrawal from the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces Treaty with Russia sets the stage for a potentially more effective and enforceable restrictive treaty, which in principle should also involve China and other countries. Designing such a treaty is certainly more involved. In the absence of a new treaty, it will be extremely difficult for the United States to find an Asian country that is willing to deploy intermediate-range missiles targeting China, including allies of US like Japan, South Korea, and the Philippines. Unless they are in a state of war, these countries are more likely to accept an anti-ballistic missile system.

  • 中美贸易谈判下周在北京继续,国情咨文中所讲的要求中共接受“结构性”条件的定义是什么?中共即使使用同一个词,在法律上也立法配合,例如知识产权、外资保护,但要中共不干预市场经济、不保护特权行业,是剪断中共命脉。

    The US-China trade negotiations will resume in Beijing early next week. What exactly is the definition of "structural changes" demanded by Trump in his SOTU address?Even if the Chinese uses the same term and cooperates by speeding up legislature regarding foreign investment and IP protection, I find it hard to imagine the CCP will actually abide by it. Stop interfering in the market economy and the key sector would amount to nothing short of cutting the CCP’s lifeline.

  • 习近平求和,川普想和,这样的词让讨厌中共的中国人更容易接受。在3月1日前,双方还在争取“最后的利益”,川普还不想答应到海南相见习近平。川普随时在变,不只是他的团队常常不知所措,也使习近平的团队抓狂。但在一些比一般美国人更支持川普的中国人看来,这正是川普高超的谈判技术。

    Semantics matter. Xi Jinping is “begging for peace” while Trump simply “wants a deal”. To people who are adamantly anti-CCP , such language seems easier to swallow. (I made a comment earlier on that Trump is “eager to make peace with Xi” and was harshly criticized.) As the March 1 deadline quickly approaches, there is still one remaining sticking point: the location of the meeting between Trump and Xi. Trump doesn’t want to commit to meeting with Xi in Hainan. The US president’s fickleness not only frequently catches his own team off guard, but also drives the Chinese officials crazy. But in the eyes of some Chinese who support Trump more than the average American, it is all part of Trump's grand negotiation stratagem.



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