试读版 | 强硬派逼迫川普不要向习近平求和

美国承认没法在WTO要求中共遵守规则;中国经济危机是贪婪膨胀所致

  • 昨天两份报告与中美贸易战有关,一份来自联合国,对今年全球经济担忧是基于中美经贸关系的不确定。

    Yesterday experts of the United Nations issued a report saying that uncertainty in the prospect of trade dispute between China and the United States could have "massive" implications on the global economy unless it is resolved. 

  • 对于《点点今天事》的观众而言这是很熟悉的观点,我从一开始就认为这不是中国或美国的事,真正打起来就是全球灾难,可以说是世界经济大战。

    To my audience, this view should sound familiar. I’ve always maintained that the impact of a trade war extends far beyond the border of either country. A full-blown trade war would constitute a global disaster, a de facto global economic warfare.

  • 另一份来自美国政府贸易代表办公室的报告,则承认没有办法通过WTO迫使中国遵守规则,表示要通过单边主义方式,让中国为自己行为负责任。这当然是今天在国情咨文中川普所要展示的。

    On the same day, in an annual report to Congress, the USTR’s office concludes that negotiating new World Trade Organization rules to rein in China's unfair trade practices would be futile. The report says the US will proceed with pursuing an unilateral approach to hold China accountable. Trump will certainly echo the theme of the report in his State of the Union address.

  • 川普在国会上是美国总统,而不是推特玩主。但是,没办法掩盖朝野在阿富汗、叙利亚、中国、朝鲜等外交,尤其是移民政策的分歧。

    When delivering his State of the Union address in front of Congress, Trump will appear more fitting for the office he holds. But decorous manners won’t do much to unite the Congress or the American people, who hold very divided views on immigration policies and diplomatic affairs concerning Afghanistan, Syria, China, North Korea, to name a few.

  • 没有人可以否认的是,美国经济现在很好,虽然年股市只是从25000点到25000点,但是去年GDP达到3%的增速,今年1月又增加了30万4千个就业岗位。

    No one can deny that the US economy is booming, although the stock market remained flat on net in 2018. (On January 4, 2018, shortly after Trump signed the tax cuts into law, the Dow hit 25000 for the first time. However, the market tanked since late last fall and went below the 25000 number. In January, the Dow rose again on the heels of Fed’s announcement that interest rates are to be kept unchanged. On the same day, the Dow closed at his highest level since last December. ) GDP clocked more than 3% of growth last year, and January saw an additional 304k jobs added to the economy.

  • 这是川普执政能力最有力的证明。但白宫内派强硬派指责川普为了经济强劲而向习近平求和,几千页的谈判协定只不过是他俩的“谅解备忘录”。

    During Trump’s time in office, the economy has achieved feats most thought impossible. But trade hawks within the White House are frustrated by Trump’s eagerness to strike a deal with China, seeing it as caving in to Xi. According to a Bloomberg report, Lighthizer expects any US-China deal to take the mere form of “little more than a memorandum of understanding between Trump and Xi”, while binding treaties typically “run thousands of pages”.

  • 当然,习近平的压力更大,中国债务达成收入的300%,不只是经济调整所致,更重要的是朝野被经济高速增长培养的贪婪、膨胀失控,意识形态化进一步摧毁了信心。

    Of course, Xi Jinping is under even greater pressure. Chinese debt is three times the size of its GDP. Xi’s pressure certainly has to do with the increasing ineffectiveness of China’s debt-led, investment-heavy growth policy. But more concerning is the general loss of confidence in the Frankenstein-like economic system which feeds on greed and exuberance. Many are also disillusioned by the increasing ideological rigidity.

  • 如果陷入到中美贸易战,经济重振的驱动力将丧失,必定使中共面对更大的政治压力。所以,习近平也需要作出痛苦的让步。

    A full-scale US-China trade war would further worsen China’s growth prospect. Political pressure is mounting on CCP. Xi Jinping will make concessions, painful ones nonetheless.

  • 中美这次协议不是句号。两国相争不只是经贸、意识形态,而是谁当老大。决定胜负可能不会在川普任内完成,他不象习近平没有期限,而且能否进入第二个任期也不是胜算在握。

    The deal that is expected to be cut by the March 1 deadline is at best a temporary truce. Competition between the two countries goes beyond the realm of trade or ideology. It’s a fight for global supremacy. The jury is still out on which side will win out in the end. We probably won’t see the result before the end of Trump’s first term. Trump might not even get a second term, unlike his counterpart who has scrapped the term limits.


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