In the past few months, I’ve made some controversial remarks on the outlook of the Chinese economy. Specifically, I don’t think China’s economic growth prospects are as gloomy as some have come to believe. My view has sparked heated private debates among some Chinese businessmen and economists that I know. It didn’t come as a surprise that many Chinese netizens on the overseas social media were infuriated.
It’s not that I am ignoring the downward pressure faced by China. In fact, I am well aware of it, as well the resulting loss of confidence in the Chinese leadership by the general public. The point I’ve been trying to make is the following: (despite the weaker macro environment,) the resilience and the capacity of the Chinese economy are underappreciated. The Chinese authority’s crackdown on business tycoons is also part of its effort to squeeze out bubbles in certain industries, in addition to tightening its grip on those industries. Ultimately, deleveraging will give the economy more room for a benign recovery after it has hit the bottom.
Per an AXIOS report citing sources from the Institute of International Finance, “international investors poured more money into Chinese stocks last month than in any month on record.” According to the data compiled by IIF, Chinese equities are expected to see $20.9 billion of inflows from international investors in the first quarter in 2019, more than the first quarters of 2017 and 2018 combined.
Investment activities are risky by definition. Yet such activities also require more caution and deliberation than day-to-day decision-making. Some investment strategists expect the debt revamp to not only boost the Chinese market, but also to some extent ameliorate a global slowdown.
The US also plays a role. The Fed’s dovish pivot, along with Trump’s determination to avoid a bear market makes the deescalation of US-China trade tensions all but unavoidable.
For those who don't like Trump, the good news is that Trump constantly provides fodder for his critics. The bad news is that they have not yet found a strong enough presidential challenger.
There’s no backing down on border wall? If the congress cannot come up with a deal on border security that Trump could accept, he may once again shut down the government and may even declare a national emergency at the southern border and use emergency powers to fund the wall. What will the country look like under national emergency? After all, those powers granted to the president during a national emergency are extraordinary: He could, among other things, seize property, ban travel, control means of production and dispatch military abroad. Can one take the opportunity to seek political vengeance?
A well-functioning judicial system is the cornerstone of any democratic society. For the US, this cornerstone is unshakable. But people on social media seem to think the court system works just like street fights.
Trump is demanding $5.7 billion of congressional funding to build the border wall, but the Democrats have refused. Doesn’t this case illustrate the limits to and checks over the executive power?
Trump has cited the migrant caravans as justifications for building his wall. El Salvador, one of the home countries of the Central American refugees approaching the US-Mexico border, elected a new president yesterday.
Why is there so much violence and human misery in El Salvador, a democracy where Catholic Church is highly influential? People who are against democracy and religion have used El Salvador as an example to back up their views. However, the 37-year-old outsider Bukele landed a surprise victory in the presidential election of the small nation of 6 million people, bringing an end to decades of two-party rule and bringing renewed hope to the nation.