试读版 | 国际资金猛入中国,川普力防熊市

如颁布紧急法,美国会变成什么样?

内容梗概

  • 过去几个月,我对中国经济的判断不要说引起很多网友的反感,就是与我熟悉的中国企业家、经济学家私下也有激烈争论。

    In the past few months, I’ve made some controversial remarks on the outlook of the Chinese economy. Specifically, I don’t think China’s economic growth prospects are as gloomy as some have come to believe. My view has sparked heated private debates among some Chinese businessmen and economists that I know. It didn’t come as a surprise that many Chinese netizens on the overseas social media were infuriated.

  • 我并不是无视中国经济的下滑,人们对政治信心的丧失,我提醒的是中国经济被低估了,而中共打压某些商人是挤压泡沫,最终使经济有良性回升的环境。

    It’s not that I am ignoring the downward pressure faced by China. In fact, I am well aware of it, as well the resulting loss of confidence in the Chinese leadership by the general public. The point I’ve been trying to make is the following: (despite the weaker macro environment,) the resilience and the capacity of the Chinese economy are underappreciated. The Chinese authority’s crackdown on business tycoons is also part of its effort to squeeze out bubbles in certain industries, in addition to tightening its grip on those industries. Ultimately, deleveraging will give the economy more room for a benign recovery after it has hit the bottom.

  • 据AXIOS报道,国际资本现在比以前任何一个月份、季度更迅速进入中国。 国际金融投资协会公布2019年第一季度进入中国市场是209亿美元,是2017、2018年第一季度的总和。

    Per an AXIOS report citing sources from the Institute of International Finance, “international investors poured more money into Chinese stocks last month than in any month on record.” According to the data compiled by IIF, Chinese equities are expected to see $20.9 billion of inflows from international investors in the first quarter in 2019, more than the first quarters of 2017 and 2018 combined.

  • 资金虽然有风险投向,但比其它日常行为更谨慎、理性。他们不只以为现在中国是机会,而且中国改造债务市场的努力,有利全球市场放缓下行速度。

    Investment activities are risky by definition. Yet such activities also require more caution and deliberation than day-to-day decision-making. Some investment strategists expect the debt revamp to not only boost the Chinese market, but also to some extent ameliorate a global slowdown.

  • 美国也在努力配合,联储会的温和态度,川普总统力阻熊市的决心,使中美贸易战争休兵是必然的。

    The US also plays a role. The Fed’s dovish pivot, along with Trump’s determination to avoid a bear market makes the deescalation of US-China trade tensions all but unavoidable.

  • 对于不喜欢川普的人而言,好消息是可以不断指出川普的问题,坏消息是找不到可以挑战总统之位的民主党人。

    For those who don't like Trump, the good news is that Trump constantly provides fodder for his critics. The bad news is that they have not yet found a strong enough presidential challenger.

  • 不修墙不回头,川普可能再次将政府关门,甚至可能宣布紧急状态法。紧急状态法之下的美国是什么样子?可以借机发泄仇恨吗?

    There’s no backing down on border wall? If the congress cannot come up with a deal on border security that Trump could accept, he may once again shut down the government and may even declare a national emergency at the southern border and use emergency powers to fund the wall. What will the country look like under national emergency? After all, those powers granted to the president during a national emergency are extraordinary: He could, among other things, seize property, ban travel, control means of production and dispatch military abroad. Can one take the opportunity to seek political vengeance?

  • 不是美国司法基石不够牢固,而是网上失态者以为司法如骂街如儿戏。

    A well-functioning judicial system is the cornerstone of any democratic society. For the US, this cornerstone is unshakable. But people on social media seem to think the court system works just like street fights.

  • 堂堂美国总统连57亿美元都不取擅动,不正显示这个国家对最高行政权力制约的力量吗?

    Trump is demanding $5.7 billion of congressional funding to build the border wall, but the Democrats have refused. Doesn’t this case illustrate the limits to and checks over the executive power?

  • 川普要修墙的理由,向美墨边境的大蓬车提供了不少。那个大蓬车来自的萨尔瓦多,昨天选出了新总统。

    Trump has cited the migrant caravans as justifications for building his wall. El Salvador, one of the home countries of the Central American refugees approaching the US-Mexico border, elected a new president yesterday.

  • 这个天主教、民主国家,为什么依然那么暴力?对于反对宗教、反对民主的人而言,这是一个范本。 但600多万人口的萨尔瓦多,正由37岁的布克莱结束两党统治,带来新的希望。

    Why is there so much violence and human misery in El Salvador, a democracy where Catholic Church is highly influential? People who are against democracy and religion have used El Salvador as an example to back up their views. However, the 37-year-old outsider Bukele landed a surprise victory in the presidential election of the small nation of 6 million people, bringing an end to decades of two-party rule and bringing renewed hope to the nation.


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