试读版 | 习近平经济维稳,股市温和回升

川普连任没对手,民主党尽弱将;英国派军舰入南海,联军保卫航行自由;泰国三大支柱难大乱

内容梗概

  • 乌汶叻出马与巴育将军竞选泰国总理,原本是他信的奇招。不料王室出来反对:因为1932年君主立宪以来,王室有不能参政的传统,同时王室和军队关系密切。 泰国这个国家难以大乱,是三大力量:佛教、国王、民主法治体制。

    A few days ago, Princess Ubolratana announced her candidacy for the Thai prime ministership, running as a candidate of the Thai Raksa Chart Party against General Prayut. The supposedly clever strategy of Thaksin backfired when the Thai royal family publicly expressed its opposition. The reason is twofold: Since the establishment of the constitutional monarchy of Thailand in 1932, the royal family has followed the tradition of not participating in politics. Moreover, the royal family intends to maintain a close relationship with the military. It’s interesting to observe that Thailand rarely descends into chaos. This is due to three constraining forces at work: Buddhism, which imbues the society with a general sense of peace of mind, the Thai king, who is highly esteemed among the public, and the basic framework of a democracy governed by the rule of law.

  • 昨天川普在德州,受到民众热火朝天的追捧。 如果在纽约或洛杉矶,恐怕就不会这么热闹。

    Yesterday, President Trump held a rally in Texas in front of an enthusiastic crowd. The turnout would have been much smaller had the rally been held in New York or Los Angeles.

  • 昨天民主党人、加州州长说:要把边境维护的民兵撤回来,不参与川普的修墙游戏,因为美墨只有人为危机。

    Yesterday, amid a heated debate over Trump’s proposed border wall, California governor Gavin Newsom (D) said he plan to pull the more than 300 National Guard troops from the state’s southern border, calling the the border “emergency” a “manufactured crisis” and expressing his reluctance for California to be “part of this political theater”.  

  • 可是对民主党而言,尚没有推出能与川普竞争总统的人选。除非可以通过政治凌迟的方式,让川普声誉一步步毁掉。从目前来看,通俄门调查还缺乏特别有力的发现。当然,还有两年,还有变数。

    But for the Democrats, there is not yet a candidate strong enough to challenge Trump’s presidency, unless the slew of congressional investigations can gradually erode Trump’s reputation and his approval rating. Will Mueller’s Russian investigation reveal new findings? 2020 is still 2 years away: There are many variables.

  • 现在支持川普的因素除了基本盘,还有美国经济的强劲态势。但也有不少不利消息:股票可能会进入休整期,美国消费信心有出现下滑迹象。股票如果进入熊市,其实也正常,但川普已经把它作为政治指标,所以他也很着急。

    In addition to unwavering support from his base, Trump also has a humming economy on his side. But there are worrying signs: the stock market might lose its steam, and we see consumer confidence weakening in the most recent report. Stock market fluctuations are normal, but since Trump touted it as his performance indicator when the Dow was booming. It’s only natural for him to feel stressed when the stock market is underwhelming.

  • 习近平的问题更严重。经济跌落至28年来最低点。但我强调:情况未必大家想的那么糟糕。 在省部级干部研讨班上,习近平强调”稳“,而中美贸易摩擦是主要不稳定因素之一。从这个角度看,习近平和川普是一对难兄难弟。

    Xi Jinping is confronted with more serious problems. China’s economy grew 6.6% in 2018, the lowest pace in 28 years. But I emphasize that the situation may not be as dismal as people tend to think. At the provincial and ministerial level cadre seminar, Xi Jinping emphasized "stability" as the party leadership’s top priority. Meanwhile, the US-China trade tension is one of the main factors that might result in instability. From this perspective, both Xi Jinping and Trump have reason to resolve the trade conflicts: their goals are aligned.

  • 中间反反复复不少消息:一会儿说能达成协议,一会儿说不会有进展;一会儿说两人见面在海南,一会儿说在马拉哥… 其实这些都不重要,协议是一定会达成的,两人还会要见面的。

    There has been a lot of back-and-forth along the way: at times it looks like a deal is within reach. Only a few hours later we are told the two sides are still miles part. In terms of the location for the next Trump-Xi meeting, many options seem plausible: It could be in Florida again, or on the Chinese resort island of Hainan, or somewhere else. None of the above is crucial. Some kind of a deal has to be reached. And Trump and Xi will meet to finalize that deal.

  • 但有媒体说这几天,美国派军舰去南海,为贸易谈判蒙上阴影。有人说对这是美国对中美贸易谈判作威。 其实不是。南海的主动挑衅方是中国,结果是:更多的亚洲国家必须在军事上与美国建立某种同盟。

    In the past few days, the United States sent warships to the South China Sea, which, to some, will cast a shadow over the trade negotiations. Some interpret this as the US throwing a wrench into the ongoing trade negotiations. The truth is that China has aggressively laid claim to almost all of South China Sea which is important for shipping lanes and potential resources, leaving regional Asian countries with no choice but to form some kind of alliance with the US.

  • 最近美国军事谈判小组去了菲律宾,对中国在南海行为形成制约。 昨天,英国防务大臣说要派军舰进入南海。当然不会立即出动,最快要到2020年。 未来俄罗斯、日本也会有类似行动。 可军舰到南海并不是为了打仗,而是形成威慑,形成均势,于是有了和平,有了航行自由。

    In addition, the United Kingdom will deploy the Royal Navy's HMS Queen Elizabeth into the politically-fraught South China Sea, as the British Defense Minister Gavin Williamson confirmed in a speech yesterday. It won’t happen immediately, at least not before 2020. Russia and Japan will take similar actions in the future. It’s important to note that Monday's sail-by is not meant to draw Beijing’s ire and provoke it into naval war. Instead, the purpose was to challenge Beijing’s excessive maritime claims and to preserve access to the waterways. By showing its willingness to operate “wherever international law allows”, the US deters the Beijing from further aggression in the disputed South China Sea.  


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