试读版 | 川普承受的压力更直接，习近平同时对付左右两极
中美贸易备忘录拟定，川普承受的压力更直接，习近平同时对付左右两极；24小时拿下马杜罗失败，川普酝酿用兵委内瑞拉，仍待瓜伊多动员发力
What’s on my mind…
Sometimes those who initiate a war are also those who are first to call a truce, but it will be harder for them to do so than their counterpart on the defense side. When President Trump travels to Hanoi next week, the controversies surrounding the history of the US-Vietnam war will resurface, reminding the world how high a price the United States had to pay to end the prolonged war. Obviously, Trump does not want to repeat the same mistakes. He craves immediate wins to demonstrate his strength.
After the plan of 24 hours' power transition in Venezuela died on the vine, Trump delivered a public speech in Miami, hinting that he might be brewing a direct military operation to break the deadlock. If realized, this would strengthen his "Make America Great Again" slogan. But unplanned military operations are risky, and Trump does not want to get bogged down by them.
Even more urgent for Trump is to reach a trade deal with China. He will strive to have a memorandum ready before March 1. My sense is that even if the two sides still do not agree on everything, the scheduled punitive tariffs will be called off.
At the beginning of this trade war, the Chinese side clearly panicked. Otherwise, it wouldn't have had the knee-jerk reaction of yelling back "An eye for an eye and a tooth for a tooth" and promising instant retaliation. Xi Jinping knows perfectly well that he can't fight this battle head on, so he is ready to make concessions. At the same time, he also wants to elicit Trump's help to better regulate the Chinese economy.
Among the Chinese elite, it's not uncommon to find extreme nationalists. On the other hand, extreme pessimism about China's political and economic outlook also has a stronghold. In a recent piece published in the Qiushi Journal, Xi Jinping vowed that China “must never copy the models or practices of other countries" or “follow the path of Western ‘constitutionalism,’ ‘separation of powers,’ or ‘judicial independence.’’
What’s interesting is the timing of the publication, which took place the very moment when China and the US are close to cut a trade deal. One interpretation is that Xi's statement was meant to appease those who had not been satisfied with China’s concessions to the US.
On the other hand, Xi Jinping did not hesitate to silence dissidents. In the name of coping with commemorative activities related to the 30th anniversary of June 4th, he has been taking the most strict precautionary measures.
The pressure Trump faces is more personally directed at him. It comes from not only the Democrats but also those who elected him. The hardliners in his administration are no exceptions. Simply put, if the US-China trade negotiations break down and a full-scale trade war ensues, the market which has already entered a period of adjustment will plunge further, marking the end of Trump’s "economic miracle".
Among the trade hawks in White House, many are trained as economists or have extensive experience in international trade. But neither professional background nor prior experience guarantees real insights. In fact, many don't seem to realize that the US can't really force its allies to act in unison with it. The global market does not want this trade war to go on any further, lest the anticipated slowdown hit even harder.
But even if Trump calls off the trade war, he can still declare victory and go home, because he will get what he ask for, as least some of it. The Chinese side won't carry out its promises to the letter. But this should come as no surprise. Most disappointed will be those who put hope in Trump to bring about fundamental changes to China. In fact, those hopes might have been wishful thinking from the very beginning.
内容梗概
发动战争的人有时最想结束战争，但是，他比对手更难结束战争。当川普总统下周前往河内时，美越战争的纠缠史会重新跑出来，证明美国为了结束战争付出了多大代价。很显然，川普不想重蹈覆辙，他要建立立即显示成效的政绩。
24小时内拿下委内瑞拉的计划夭折之后，他在迈阿密的公开讲话预示，他也许在酝酿用直接，快速进出的用兵方式打破僵局。 这个有利强化“美国再次伟大”的口号，但原本不在计划中的军事行动当然有风险，川普可不想陷入泥沼之中。 所以，他还对人道救援、瓜伊多、哥伦比亚的行动能瓦解马杜罗还抱有期待。
现在，川普更急迫的是中美贸易谈判尽快达成协议，争取在3月1日前出来备忘录，即使还有分歧，也不致于升高关税。 这次贸易战最开始显示了中共的恐慌，否则不会说出“以牙还牙”这样夜行吹口哨的话来。 习近平非常清楚，他不能打这场仗，所以他作好了让步的准备。同时，他也想借川普之手，帮助他规范一下中国的市场秩序。
强国主义和不信任中国能力的两种极端情绪，都在精英分子中很有力量。 习近平最近公开的“不走三权分立”、“不改的坚决不改”之类的讲话，被认为是安抚那些指责他签下“二十一条”式的中美贸易协议的人。 另一方面，习近平毫不犹豫地压制异议分子，以对付“六四”30周年的纪念活动为名，在中国各地进行了最近几年来最严密的预防。
川普面临的压力更直接针对他本人，而且不只是来自民主党，也来自民众，尤其是他队伍中的强硬派。 很简单的道理：如果中美贸易战开打，美国原本进入调整期的市场会进一步重挫，川普的经济神话就会打破。
强硬派中的人物，即使是有贸易甚至经济学背景，未必真正洞察到，美国力量再强大，也没有办法说服盟友们一致行动。 全球市场都不希望这场贸易战打下去，以免衰退更猛烈。
川普仍然可以宣布胜利，因为这次谈判的确使美国获利多多，即算是有些承诺中共会打折扣。 失望的是那些寄望于结构性改变中国的人，其实，他们原本就是奢望。
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