试读版 | 中美贸易谈判最后期限不是大限

川普习近平见面地点有哪些选项?乌汶叻不能参选,泰国继续将军总理

内容梗概

  • 荣誉与特权不管是与生俱来,还是后天获得,某个时刻就是负担,就会影响更大的进取。乌汶叻即使在美国放弃了王室之位,但她的血统依旧是王室血统,何况回到泰国之后,人民拥戴与公主无异。

    Honor and privilege, whether born or acquired, could become a burden at certain points and hinder one’s greater aspirations.

    Even if Princess Ubolratana gave up her royal title, she is still seen as a member of the royal family and treated like one. After her return to Thailand, the people received her as if she was still a princess.

  • 她失去了代表他信所在党参选的资格,也使泰国失去了一次大变的机会。这对巴育将军利好,将军们也可安心高尔夫球场了。爱好和平的军人,决战的不是战场而是球场。这也是泰国政变很少流血的原因。

    If she is deemed ineligible to run for office, it will be a loss for not only Thaksin’s party which she represents, but also those who want to bring hope and change to Thailand. It will be good news for General Prayut, who can now enjoy golfing without worries. It always strikes me as interesting how many Thai military generals are also golfers. Maybe the peace-loving soldiers prefer the golfing course to the the battlefield? Note that military coups in Thailand, albeit frequent, tend to be relatively milder and smaller in scale.

  • 泰国是川普与习近平2月见面的选地之一,现在最可能的是越南,习近平希望是海南,川普说还是到佛州吧。 还有一个选项是朝鲜半岛,这是我提供的。在未来的《点点今天事》可以更多讨论。

    Thailand was one of the options for the Trump-Xi meeting in February. Now the leading candidate is Vietnam. Xi Jinping’s top choice would be Hainan, but Trump preferred Florida. Now, I will provide another alternative: somewhere on the Korean Peninsula. I will give a follow-up on why I think it would be a good choice.

  • 《华尔街日报》2月7日的报导说: 一位长期的共和党战略家,时常与白宫高级官员有交流的知情人表示:“在白宫,大家绝对关注的事情是:需要采取哪些政策、策略和协议来保持经济持续高速运转。” 良好的经济态势将成为川普争取连任的强大信号。而这些对经济上的考虑也包括:如何才能与中国快速达成交易。 我随即在推特说:这位共和党战略家的看法,是符合川普执政逻辑的。这也是几个月来,《点点今天事》判断川普亦想与习近平达成贸易协议的基础,现在各种传闻,包括白宫团队、川普本人的话,可能使你判断困难。其实,本质没有变。

    The Wall Street Journal reported on February 7 quoting a long-time Republican strategist, an insider who often communicates with senior White House officials that there is an “absolute focus” at the White House on what “policies, tactics and agreements” are required to keep the economy humming and give Trump a strong re-election message. How to quickly reach a deal with China is part of the consideration.

    I immediately commented on Twitter: The Republican strategist’s view is in line with my understanding of Trump’s governance philosophy: using a booming economy as a rallying point for his supporters. In the past few months, this has served as the basis for my analysis of the US-China trade negotiations. I’ve reached the conclusion that Trump cannot bear the full economic consequences of a complete “decoupling” so has to reach some kind of a deal. Various leaks, rumors and contradictions from the White House trade team as well as Trump himself are mere distractions. The essence of the situation has not changed.

  • 社交媒体上,在一些中国人的脑子中,对中美贸易战存在浪漫的幻想。 在阿根廷会议之后传出了90天期限之说,我说不是大限。因为中美之争,将是长期之争,打打停停罢了。

    On Chinese twitter, there is some unrealistic hope that a full-scale trade war will stifle and shatter the CCP regime. After the G20 meeting between Trump and Xi, the Chinese side was given a 90-day grace period to implement demands from the US. As I said, the 90-day deadline is no ultimatum. The US-China trade dispute will be a protracted battle—— on for a while and off for a while.


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